杨会长在“美国大选期间及之后的中美关系”视频会上发表主题发言

作者：  来源：上海国际战略问题研究会SIISS

10月20日，上海国际战略问题研究会会长杨洁勉应邀出席由中国人民争取和平与裁军协会(和裁会)和美国卡特中心联合主办的“美国大选期间及之后的中美关系”视频会，并发表题为“美国总统选举后中美关系的发展趋势”的主题发言(要点附后)。

附：杨洁勉会长主题发言要点

Possible Developments of China-US Relations after the US Presidential Election

(美国总统选举后中美关系的发展趋势)

The China-US relationship is one of the few most important bilateral ones in the world and has seen drastic down-spiraling in the past couple of years because of the Trump administration making China as the strategic competitor. Moreover, the US presidential election and the Covid-19 pandemic have been making this relationship even more difficult and complicated.

The Trump-Biden competition for American presidency is of defining significance for the United States, China-US relations and the overall global affairs. Although the election is still full of uncertainties such as President Trump’s contracted case with Covid-19 and the vote counting might be very controversial, yet some of the post-election developments of China-US relations can somewhat be outlined according to the trajectory in the past four years.

First, China-US relations will see continued tensions in geo-strategic, economic, scientific and technological (S&T), ideological, military fields no matter who comes into the White House. Comprehensive competition looks likely to be one of the major features of China-US relations at least in upcoming five to ten years. This feature reflects the difficulties of the two countries in readjusting their mutual relations at the critical turns both domestically and internationally.

Secondly, the two countries will interact more on global and regional orders. Either Trump or Biden will continue to preserve the so-called US world leadership in political clouts, S&T primacy and military supremacy, although the two disagree on the ways to do. Consequentially, the United States will keep on maximum pressure on China, thus inviting backlashes and counter-actions. Regionally, Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific will be the testing ground between the two countries in strategic competition. Europe will be the intertwined relations for the four powers among the US, China, Europe and Russia. Hopefully, the Middle East and Africa might see some chances for the Third Party cooperation of China and the United States.

Thirdly, S&T competition will go further and deeper in China-US relations. The United States attaches great importance to S&T and compares Huawei’s 5G as the Soviet’s Sputnik in the mid-1950s. There are not many differences between the Republicans and Democrats on taking security as excuses to restrict exchanges, limit investment, blacklist entities and decouple with China so as to protect its leadership in S&T field. This will not only exert great impacts on China-US relations but also hurt the world as a whole.

Having said so, it is not the end of the world. China-US relationship has its own dynamism that promotes it ahead. Economic interchange is still one of the few most important ballasts as their import and export still rise. WeChat and TikTok are two cases in points as well. Besides, the province-state and people-to-people exchanges keep their own momentums.

More and more people on both sides are preparing the possible cooperation after the election. Among the possible are climate changes, public health and UN 2030 agenda. Some think tanks already suggest that the two governments should resume some of the frozen dialogue mechanisms.

Moreover, most members of the international community hope that China-US relations could be back to normal track. Few of America’s allies and China’s strategic partners want to choose sides in China-US conflicts. These would greatly restrain American policies of decoupling and regrouping of confrontational blocs. After all, peace, development and win-win cooperation are still the call of the days. And China is determined not to fall into the trap of a new Cold War.

As the saying goes, four years in world politics can be very long and embrace a lot of surprises. Changes can develop in either positive or negative directions. China adheres to the direction of cooperation, coordination and stability in its handling its relations with the United States. And we hope eventually the latter would realize that cooperation is the only best option. While we are preparing all the adversities in the future China-US relations, we should never give up our hope and efforts.

来源时间：2020/10/20   发布时间：2020/10/20

旧文章ID：23263